Deep Insights.Rigorous Due Diligence.
Independent, uncompromised analysis on macroeconomics, global equities, and fixed income. Designed for the serious investor.
Macro Analysis
Top-down perspectives on monetary policy, inflation, and global liquidity trends.
Equity Research
Bottom-up fundamental analysis of public companies, focusing on free cash flow and moats.
Fixed Income
Yield curve reading and credit cycle analysis to uncover mispriced risk.
About the Author
At Due Diligence Capital Notes, I believe that superior returns are generated through dissenting from the consensus when the consensus is wrong. My approach combines top-down macroeconomic analysis with bottom-up fundamental equities research, focusing heavily on cash flows and capital cycle theory.
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The latest deep-dives and market commentary.
S-Oil's Dual Catalyst: Refining Supercycle Meets the Shaheen Petrochemical Startup
S-Oil reports Q1 2026 earnings against a backdrop of Hormuz-driven crude prices near $119 per barrel and Korean refining margins roughly double their historical average, with analyst operating-profit estimates ranging from ₩594 billion to ₩1.18 trillion. Simultaneously, the company's ₩9.26 trillion Shaheen complex — the world's first commercial Thermal Crude-to-Chemicals facility — is 93% complete and weeks from mechanical readiness, with output pre-committed through a five-year SABIC marketing deal.
Core Scientific's $3.3 Billion Secured Note Offering Relies on a Subsidiary, Not the Parent Company
Core Scientific announced a $3.3 billion senior secured note offering to retire bridge loans originated just seven weeks earlier. The notes are being issued by an indirect subsidiary, not the parent company, which has explicitly declined to guarantee them — a structural choice that places CORZ equity holders below subsidiary creditors in the recovery hierarchy. The Rule 144A institutional offering, secured against five data-center campuses, matures in 2031.
AST SpaceMobile's Satellite Cellular Network: Record Hardware, Zero Revenue, and a 2026 Reckoning
AST SpaceMobile has deployed the largest phased-array antenna ever placed in low-Earth orbit and plans to launch 45–60 more satellites in 2026, aiming to deliver broadband directly to ordinary smartphones worldwide. The company holds binding commercial agreements with AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone, and Saudi Telecom, but has generated no revenue from its core service. Execution of the 2026 launch schedule will determine whether an $11 billion market capitalization is prescient or premature.